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America Ill Prepared For High Energy Prices

Energy prices are continuing to increase as the global demand for fossil fuels increases and our limited refining capacity is regularly disrupted by hurricanes and flooding. A major part of America’s current predicament is that America has not taken energy conservation seriously and has not planned ahead well. For example, part of the problem with high gasoline prices in the US is the lack of refining capacity. It has been over 30 years since a new refinery facility has opened in America.

Alternative fuels will only give a partial answer to our use of energy and to high energy prices. Energy prices are rising fast all over the world and likely will keep on increasing due to strong demand, especially from Asia. Even with such a strong incentive to move towards alternative energy there are important uses for oil that are difficult if not impossible to substitute.

14Jun2008 | taipan | 2 comments | Continued
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Prime Minister Putin Boom Times in Russia

The Russian economy under Putin is characterized as a transition economy since the fall of the socialist system in the beginning of the 1990’s.

In principle the Russian economy is a market economy adhering to the basic freedom of enterprise and market based pricing mechanisms but the characterization of a transition economy refers to the many features that constitute the inherited socialist institutions still influencing the economy’s operation. Putin as Prime Minster is expected to call the shots in Russia just as forcibly as during his eight year highly successful term as President.

5Jun2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
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Bernanke Rings the Forex Market Bell

The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, rings the forex market bell at a speech he made yesterday by satellite TV to an economic conference in Barcelona Spain. Helicopter Ben finally spoke out about the sad condition of the US Dollar and said the following:

“In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury, we continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets. The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which have contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation. We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of erosion in longer-term inflation expectations.

4Jun2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
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America Motoring to Disaster

America has been motoring towards disaster ever since its economy was structured around the automobile and cheap energy supplies. Now that energy is no longer cheap disaster is imminent. Like the airlines, the American business and lifestyle model is broken with oil above $125 a barrel and probably headed higher, perhaps much higher, as peak oil all too soon kicks in with a vengeance.

Gasoline prices at $4.00 a gallon have started to force Americans to cut back on their driving. Even middle class families are having a tough time making ends meet with rising gas prices, rising food prices, double digit increases in the cost of health care, stagnant incomes, and falling house prices occurring all at the same time. So some effort at energy conservation is finally underway.

28May2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
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Mortgage Housing Economic Crisis to Get Worse

Those investors who think that the worse of the mortgage, housing, and economic crisis are already behind us should consider the following report.

According to a new report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight the prices of homes sold in the first quarter of 2008 posted a record decline.

Home prices fell 3.1% from the first quarter of 2007, the largest decline in the purchase-only index, which excludes refinancings, since the federal agency began keeping records 17 years ago.

First-quarter prices dropped 1.7% from the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly dip ever.

“It’s not going to be the largest decline on record for long,” said Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital.”Prices are going to keep falling until we get to the equilibrium, which is much, much lower. This is only the beginning.”

22May2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
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A Flock of Black Financial Swans Overhead

Black Swan events are disastrous events that are supposed to be so rare that one doesn’t really have to worry about them. The probability of a black swan event occurring is just too remote.

Or is it?

I can’t help but think that a flock of black swans is still circling above the world’s financial markets. One or more of the unwelcome critters will likely swoop down to engulf the markets in yet another crisis later this year. 2008, the year from hell, seems to have created exactly the type of environment that naturally attracts black swans. The mispricing of risk is a tasty morsel that I expect black swans love.

17May2008 | taipan | 1 comment | Continued

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