Economy
America Ill Prepared For High Energy Prices
Energy prices are continuing to increase as the global demand for fossil fuels increases and our limited refining capacity is regularly disrupted by hurricanes and flooding. A major part of America’s current predicament is that America has not taken energy conservation seriously and has not planned ahead well. For example, part of the problem with high gasoline prices in the US is the lack of refining capacity. It has been over 30 years since a new refinery facility has opened in America.
Alternative fuels will only give a partial answer to our use of energy and to high energy prices. Energy prices are rising fast all over the world and likely will keep on increasing due to strong demand, especially from Asia. Even with such a strong incentive to move towards alternative energy there are important uses for oil that are difficult if not impossible to substitute.
14Jun2008 | taipan | 2 comments | Continued
Prime Minister Putin Boom Times in Russia
The Russian economy under Putin is characterized as a transition economy since the fall of the socialist system in the beginning of the 1990’s.
In principle the Russian economy is a market economy adhering to the basic freedom of enterprise and market based pricing mechanisms but the characterization of a transition economy refers to the many features that constitute the inherited socialist institutions still influencing the economy’s operation. Putin as Prime Minster is expected to call the shots in Russia just as forcibly as during his eight year highly successful term as President.
5Jun2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
Mortgage Housing Economic Crisis to Get Worse
Those investors who think that the worse of the mortgage, housing, and economic crisis are already behind us should consider the following report.
According to a new report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight the prices of homes sold in the first quarter of 2008 posted a record decline.
Home prices fell 3.1% from the first quarter of 2007, the largest decline in the purchase-only index, which excludes refinancings, since the federal agency began keeping records 17 years ago.
First-quarter prices dropped 1.7% from the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly dip ever.
“It’s not going to be the largest decline on record for long,” said Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital.”Prices are going to keep falling until we get to the equilibrium, which is much, much lower. This is only the beginning.”
22May2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
A Flock of Black Financial Swans Overhead
Black Swan events are disastrous events that are supposed to be so rare that one doesn’t really have to worry about them. The probability of a black swan event occurring is just too remote.
Or is it?
I can’t help but think that a flock of black swans is still circling above the world’s financial markets. One or more of the unwelcome critters will likely swoop down to engulf the markets in yet another crisis later this year. 2008, the year from hell, seems to have created exactly the type of environment that naturally attracts black swans. The mispricing of risk is a tasty morsel that I expect black swans love.
17May2008 | taipan | 1 comment | Continued
April 2008 US Foreclosures Set Record Level
U.S. home foreclosure filings set a new record level high in April, 2008, rising about 65% over the previous year and placing municipalities at risk by cutting into the value of taxed property. The U.S. Foreclosure Market Report was released on May 14,2008 by the RealtyTrac, an online marketplace that tracks foreclosed properties.
There are still many optimists about who seem to think that the worse of the financial crisis is over. Current data suggests otherwise and that foreclosures will continue to increase over the next year to 18 months. It is hard to see the US economy doing well with massive numbers of foreclosures dragging down the value of the entire US housing market.
14May2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued
America’s Dependence Upon Cheap Energy
America and the American Empire were build on the back of cheap energy. Now that energy is not at all cheap the empire is running on gas fumes. The growth model has been broken, even if most Americas don’t realize it yet. But they soon will as crude oil prices move even higher.
Just think about how American developed as a nation. The concept of manifest destiny meant that we pushed ever westward, until America controlled all of the vast territory from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from sea to shining sea and beyond as we added Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam.
12May2008 | taipan | 0 comments | Continued