Poor Barack Obama. He won his bid to be the 44th President of the United States. Congratulations to him, he fought a smart well managed campaign and deserved to win. However being the 44th President may well prove to be unlucky no matter how well Obama leads the nation.

Having lived in Taiwan and Hong Kong for a number of years I know that the Chinese consider the number four as being unlucky. I suppose that means the number 44 is double unlucky. We shall soon know.

Do not misunderstand me. I wish President Elect Obama well. I was pleased that he won the election and sincerely hope that he can assemble a team that will be able to cope with the dire looking domestic and international issues that will be inherited by the Obama administration. Bush and his cohorts have left a mess that hopefully can with great effort be cleaned up. But I fear that the challenges of the next many years are going to overwhelm the possible solutions no matter who leads the US. Here is a short list of difficult issues that the Obama team will face:

1.) The Greater Depression: The recession that in my opinion is now just getting underway is not going to be a garden variety recession that will be mild and short lived. We are facing what could be a near total collapse of the world financial order and what could well turn out to be the first global greater depression. Just look around you in the financial world. The dominoes are already falling as a balance sheet recession picks up steam. The financial crisis is now firmly affecting mainstreet. As consumer spending drives about 70% of the US GDP yesterday’s reported all time record drop in monthly retail sales of 2.8% is a scary figure. By the time Obama takes office a full blown decline in economic activity will be accelerating, both in the US and in much of the world.

2.) War in Iraq: Starting a war is so much easier than in getting out of one. While during his campaign Obama proposed a 16 month flexible timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq the timetable may be difficult to meet. Baghdad and Iraq continue to be among the most dangerous places on earth as bombings and violence remain a daily affair. Getting out of Iraq with any dignity or honor at all will not be easy.

3.) War in Afghanistan: The war in Afghanistan is going from bad to much worst as the Taliban emerge as a more powerful force than ever. Obama is on record as wanting to step up the war in deploying more American troops. In my opinion such a move will be disastrous. The rugged terrain in Afghanistan will soak up more troops than we can put into the field. It is foolish hubris that leads Obama and most Americans to think that we can accomplish in Afghanistan what the Soviets and the British could not. No foreign power in the history of Afghanistan has been able to long prevail.

The war in Afghanistan has already been lost. There is no possibility of somehow transforming a largely warlord ruled Afghanistan into a democratic fully functioning nation unless a long term extremely expensive effort involving many hundreds of billions of dollars could be carried out. Given the US has its own financial challenges it is unlikely that anywhere near the amount of required funds to rebuild Afghanistan will ever be committed to the task. Even if the dollars could be found Afghanistan is so corrupt that most of them would probably be diverted by their “leaders” to private secret bank accounts located far from Kabul.

No, Obama is sure to be disappointed about the results that are achieved by an escalation of the war in Afghanistan.

4.) Climate Change: Obama will very likely take climate change seriously. I expect that during his term the evidence of profound unfavorable change in the earth’s climate will be rolling in. Unfortunately, it is probably already too late to prevent severe dislocations in the patterns of life of a majority of the earth’s people from occurring. The worldwide consequences of climate change will not be pretty.

5.) Energy Independence: Obama stated during his campaign that his administration would support what would amount to a full court press designed to with lessen America’s dependence upon foreign oil. He would pursue more drilling within the US and offshore as well as the development of alternative energy resources, such as wind, solar, biomass, clean burning coal, and nuclear power. What he didn’t say is that alternative energy resources, even with a crash development program, can not take up the slack fast enough as world wide oil production falls.

Within a few years the world will be energy starved no matter what we do. Of course, doing something will be better than doing nothing. But the result of all of the government efforts will probably be disappointing, energy shortages will be widespread, and Obama will receive much of the blame.

Do not be fooled by the current break in oil and gasoline prices. Growth in China and India will slow down as the world recession, perhaps depression, continues, but a slowing down for their economies still means growth rates of 5% to 6% a year. World oil fields are in a state of decline that will not be reversed. You will see much higher prices for crude oil than even $150 a barrel during President Elect Obama’s first term.

There was nearly a breakdown in the American transportation system this year as oil prices approached $150 a barrel. Any sustained price above $150 a barrel would likely lead to food riots within the US and around the world as transportation systems seize up and transport trucks come to a halt. Without daily deliveries to American supermarkets shelves would be bare within a week.

Conclusion: President Elect Obama will take office just as an alarming regressive period of history begins. Americans who have a keen sense of history know that human progress throughout history has not always been smooth. There are periods of time where progress in the human condition does not move forward and in face regresses, sometimes for tens or even hundreds of years at a time. Unfortunately most Americans do not have a good sense of history and think that living conditions only steadily progress and improve, except perhaps for brief periods of recession. They are likely to be dismayed, overwhelmed, and angered by events. It will be a dangerous time to live in America.

Obama is talking the oath of office near the beginning of a perfect storm of rapidly converging unpleasant events. The Chinese may be right about the number 4. Expectations are already so high for Obama to “save the world” that disappointment is sure to follow. The 44th President of the United States will have to be extremely lucky not to be blamed for much of the misfortune that will soon be upon us all.

I hope that I am completely wrong President Elect Obama. But I would not want to be so unlucky as to be the 44th President of the United States.

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