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Taipan is a retired commodity broker, forex trader and portfolio manager who enjoys following the forex, stock, and commodities markets and drawing upon his 40 years or so of trading experience to post articles to a series of blogs. While Taipan is not always right with his forecasts he usually offers some interesting insights into markets. Actually if he weren't so modest he would tell you that in the big strategic picture he is almost always right. Taipan is very distrustful of statements made by stock brokers, stock analysis, so called forex experts, and in general talking heads. The investor who thinks that the playing field is level and that he can depend upon MSNBC and CNN for inside trading information has got to be at least a little nuts. If you want to trade well you had better develop your own style and your own sources of reliable information. This blog will attempt to provide market trading information that will be helpful. However, always keep in mind that any decisions made to trade using this information are your sole responsibility. Taipan has been around long enough to know that the markets can make a fool out of anyone so never blindly follow what someone else suggests. To trade well you have to think well and the thoughts need to be your own.

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April 2008 US Foreclosures Set Record Level

U.S. home foreclosure filings set a new record level high in April, 2008, rising about 65% over the previous year and placing municipalities at risk by cutting into the value of taxed property. The U.S. Foreclosure Market Report was released on May 14,2008 by the RealtyTrac, an online marketplace that tracks foreclosed properties.

There are still many optimists about who seem to think that the worse of the financial crisis is over. Current data suggests otherwise and that foreclosures will continue to increase over the next year to 18 months. It is hard to see the US economy doing well with massive numbers of foreclosures dragging down the value of the entire US housing market.

Municipalities in the hardest hit states like California, Nevada, and Florida are having their finances drastically effected as tax revenues plummet. Foreclosed properties reduce the value of taxed properties. Plunging home values reduce the money that cities, villages and towns collect in property taxes and is causing yet another financial crisis.

The April foreclosure rate is “the highest monthly total we’ve seen since we began issuing the report in January 2005,” said chief executive James J. Saccacio in a statement. “The city council in Vallejo, California, part of a metropolitan area with a foreclosure rate that ranked sixth highest in the nation in April, voted last week to have the city file for bankruptcy,” said Saccacio.

The over extension of mortgage debt, credit card debt, and business debt, is not going to correct itself overnight. As debt is deleveraged the consequences of the real estate bubble popping are going to be with us for a very long time. The stock market has held up well so far only due to the tremendous injection of liquidity into the banking and stock brokerage system by the Federal Reserve Bank. As a result stock market investors have not faced up to the reality that housing market conditions continue to deteriorate and so far think that the mortgage crisis will be short lived.

This rosy perception is likely to be reexamined and discarded as the foreclosure rate continues at high levels. As real estate values continue to plunge banks are going to come under increasing pressure. It seems to me that using current stock market rallies to sell stocks is a prudent course of action.

When it comes to real estate investing and bottom picking of selected properties the best values are probably yet to come. Housing prices are likely to fall even further over the next year or two. So far in 2008 , according to the National Board of Realtors, housing prices have declined by 7.7%.

The important thing to keep in mind is that this is not an ordinary slow or recessionary period. The over extension of credit, high debt levels, and the misallocation of capital, build up over many years. In my opinion, the correction will be long and severe. The fact that the Fed actions of pumping even more credit into a system that is ill because of too much easy credit is not reassuring. The Fed’s actions so far are largely responsible for yet another bubble in commodities. There will be unintended tragic consequences as a result of the Fed’s fat cat rescue efforts.

The commodity bubble may be the most dangerous of them all as excess liquidity is helping to send prices for stable commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice to record levels. Food riots are already breaking out around the world as poor people are being priced out of being able to eat at adequate levels. While the Fed may have calmed the waters in the banking and stock brokerage communities it may have set the stage for violent conditions that will bring down governments across the world.

When a large number of a countries population is starving anything can happen. A great deal more trouble for the world’s financial and political systems is surely on the way.

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