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Taipan is a retired commodity broker, forex trader and portfolio manager who enjoys following the forex, stock, and commodities markets and drawing upon his 40 years or so of trading experience to post articles to a series of blogs. While Taipan is not always right with his forecasts he usually offers some interesting insights into markets. Actually if he weren't so modest he would tell you that in the big strategic picture he is almost always right. Taipan is very distrustful of statements made by stock brokers, stock analysis, so called forex experts, and in general talking heads. The investor who thinks that the playing field is level and that he can depend upon MSNBC and CNN for inside trading information has got to be at least a little nuts. If you want to trade well you had better develop your own style and your own sources of reliable information. This blog will attempt to provide market trading information that will be helpful. However, always keep in mind that any decisions made to trade using this information are your sole responsibility. Taipan has been around long enough to know that the markets can make a fool out of anyone so never blindly follow what someone else suggests. To trade well you have to think well and the thoughts need to be your own.

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March Consumer Confidence Index Decline Grim

The March Consumer Confidence Index makes for grim reading for those Bernanke cheerleaders who still think that Ben and the Fed can keep the economy from experiencing a recession. A recession that we are probably already in. Actually, it makes grim reading for anyone who is concerned about the future path of the American economy.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Confidence Board, which had declined sharply in February, fell further in March. The fall was all of 12 points which is like falling over a cliff.

The Index now stands at 64.5 (1985=100), down sharply from 76.4 in February. The Expectations Index declined to 47.9 from 58.0. The Present Situation Index decreased to 89.2 from 104.0 in February.

For more of this story go to The Consumer Confidence Board website.

Investors of America and the world it surely looks like we are entering into an economic mess that will be extremely severe and difficult to get out of. When the American consumer stops buying all that stuff that they don’t need with money they don’t have our roughly 70% based consumer economy has got to be in trouble.

Perhaps an economy based on savings and investment rather than consumer spending would serve us a lot better. Unfortunately the American government policies favors spending and consumption over saving and investment. Even members of the Federal Reserve Bank and the President encourage citizens to go out and buy a new gas guzzling new SUV rather than save.

Then the rate cutting mania of the Federal Reserve punishes those thrifty citizens who do save. Rate cuts to extremely low levels especially hurt retired people who depend upon savings account interest to help fund their living expenses.

The American economy has been build on a foundation of sand. At some point, one we may have reached, a consumption driven economy is doomed to fail.

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